The global aluminium market is valued at approximately USD 191 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 347 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of roughly 6.2%. Volume-wise, the market stood at 76.47 million tonnes in 2025 and is forecast to reach 92.87 million tonnes by 2031.

Key Demand Drivers
Several powerful structural forces are propelling growth:
Electric Vehicles: Battery electric vehicles contain triple the aluminium of internal combustion models — around 885 lb per car in North America in 2024. Every 10% reduction in vehicle weight extends driving range by roughly 7%, pushing automakers to specify aluminium for body structures, battery trays, and thermal systems. 

Renewable Energy & Construction: Key trends include rising lightweight material demand in EVs and aerospace, renewable energy system expansion, and advancement in aluminium alloy development and smelting technologies. 

The Role of China
China is, without question, the dominant force in global aluminium.
Production dominance: China produces approximately 58–60% of global aluminium, making its supply policy crucial for global pricing. China produced a record 45.02 million tonnes in 2025.
The 45-million-tonne cap: After the government imposed a production cap in 2017 to combat overcapacity and reduce emissions, China's aluminium sector is now approaching a key turning point. This cap has already been hit in annual capacity, and its restriction on further output growth is expected to have major implications for global markets. China is expected to hit its production ceiling of 45.5 Mt/y by end-2026, forcing greater reliance on imports and shifting the balance of global supply.
Shifting from exporter to importer: Trade pattern shifts signal a fundamental change in China's position — transforming from a persistent net exporter to a potential net importer. Exports of semi-finished aluminium products fell 9% in the first seven months of 2025, while imports of primary aluminium rose 11% to 1.5 million tonnes.
Downstream & extrusions: China maintains overwhelming dominance in global aluminium extrusion consumption — approximately 65% of global demand — reflecting its massive construction sector, expanding transportation infrastructure, and extensive manufacturing base.

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